Bay Area Exodus Leading edge of housing conversion pandemic


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A view of the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco


By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – San Francisco has long been one of the country’s “it” destinations, and was a country of unaffordable housing even before the coronavirus outbreak. The average price for single-family homes was still over $ 1.5 million leaving Golden Gate City even in December.

Data from high tech sources like cell phone location trackers to old school address change forms has begun to scale the inversion of happiness the City by the Bay is now facing by 1.5% to maybe 3% Population that migrated to surrounding counties or other states in the past year. House prices are starting to follow.

“The Bay Area hurts,” said cell phone data firm Unacast in an analysis that concluded that about 46,000 People who have left 10 counties in the Bay Area, with more than 13,000 leaving San Francisco themselves. “The exodus from the city centers and Silicon Valley is very real” and has potentially resulted in a roughly $ 12 billion blow to local incomes.

In a separate analysis, Oxford Economics, citing the U.S. Postal Service change in address information, said the city’s population decline may have exceeded 27,000, the fourth highest in the nation and part of a wider population reshuffling of major cities during the pandemic.

This has resulted in higher home sales in places like Texas and North Carolina where people have moved.

In San Francisco, that meant a nearly 7% decline in average home prices from November through December, a 23% decline in rents over the year, and a 15-year high in available condos. This is based on data published online by Norada https: /. / Real Estate Investments.

The pandemic has sparked a range of changes in living, working, and migration – from big cities to the suburbs, from dense office buildings to working from home – and the persistence of these trends is likely to affect how the economy looks after health, according to the report Economists and political decision-makers are subsiding in the crisis.

For example, the Unacast data is based on vast amounts of information obtained from cell phones, and particularly changes in where a phone is staying. The company has seen similar population declines in New York and Houston – the first and fourth largest cities in the country.

While these new patterns may be reversed, many analysts believe that they are likely to last to some extent – and the adjustment may not be smooth.

Kansas City Federal Reserve Federal Reserve President Esther George said Tuesday she sees a “worrying scenario” when jobs, populations and places of work change so much that homeowners cannot pay mortgages and businesses cannot afford leases .

“Any significant change in the location of economic activity, regardless of its specific form, can have a significant impact on the valuation of residential and commercial real estate,” said George, which affects, for example, the stability of financial institutions.

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